Introduction

“Photovoltaic” is made up of two words: “photo” from Greek roots, meaning light, and “voltaic” from “volt”, which is the unit used to measure electric potential at a given point. Photovoltaic (PV) systems use cells made of semi-conducting materials to convert light into electricity.

Discovered by Edmond Becquerel in 1839, photovoltaic electricity undergoes its first real application as an energy source for space satellites. Even though certain applications were used for several decennia, the real commercial take-off of photovoltaic electricity connected to the electricity grid started at the dawn of the 21st century.

Status Today

In 2009, 7.2 GW of photovoltaic systems were installed all over the world. The PV market is expected to grow by 50 to 100% in 2010 with many countries starting to deploy PV intensively. At the beginning of 2010, more than 22 GW of PV systems were already installed in the world, delivering large quantities of electricity.

The contribution of PV to electricity production in Europe is steadily growing, with PV contributing significantly to peak power generation in many countries, notably in Spain and in Germany.

The cost of PV electricity is constantly decreasing, with PV price reduction being particularly significant in 2009 due to the scale effect and increased competition.

A sustained average of a 20% learning rate will drive prices down substantially over the next years and decades, a trend which will make PV electricity more affordable and grid parity (the point where the generation cost of photovoltaic electricity equals the price of electricity at the point of connection) a likely reality for most of European countries during the current decade. Grid parity is expected to be reached as early as 2011-2012 in some Southern European regions.

Outlook Tomorrow

 

In Europe

It can reasonably be assumed that photovoltaic electricity will become a mainstream power source in Europe by 2020 and a major power source in 2050. The “SET for 2020” study (www.setfor2020.eu) carried out by EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association) with the support of the Consulting firm A.T. Kearney, outlines that, provided some boundary conditions are met, PV could supply up to 12% of the electricity demand in Europe by 2020, thus representing 390 GW of installed capacity and 460 TWh of electricity generation.

For 2030 to 2050, EPIA together with EREC has shown the high potential of PV within the RE-thinking 2050 scenario (www.rethinking2050.eu). Based on the intermediate “SET For 2020” scenario, PV could reach as much a 962 GW of installed capacity by 2050 in Europe. The potential of photovoltaic electricity could, however, be at least 50 % higher in Europe by 2050. Available land area and buildings in “zero impact areas” (i.e. areas not in competition with food production, natural reserves, housing, industry or other purposes) represents a potential of more than 5,000 TWh of yearly PV electricity production.

All assumptions are made on the basis of a conservative assessment of the performance evolution of current commercial technologies. With the expected evolution of technologies such as concentrated photovoltaics and nanotechnologies, even higher performance and higher electricity output by Wp (Watt peak) can be expected.

In the world

Outside of Europe, the potential of PV development in countries of the Sunbelt region (located between 35 degrees north and south of the equator) also represents a massive opportunity in the light of the rapidly increasing electricity demand and the growing prices of conventional fossil fuels. As shown in “Unlocking the Sunbelt potential of Photovoltaics” Sunbelt countries represent 39% of the global electricity demand today, but only 9% of the cumulative installed PV capacity. Providing some boundary conditions* are met, PV could become a mainstream electricity source able to sustainably meet the skyrocketing electricity demand of growing economies in the Sunbelt region and elsewhere in the world.

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* A steady development of photovoltaic electricity will require enhancing storage capabilities on the network, in parallel to establishing aggregations of Virtual Power Plants and smart grids as well as hybrid systems. Large scale storage (using hydropower or other sources) as well as decentralised storage devices will help to accelerate the deployment of PV across Europe. A European super grid would also allow concentrating large-scale PV power plants in places with the most favourable levels of irradiation.